I also deem it could be insurers, although many claims It cannot happen as they don't have to market to market. But so were many claiming for the (US) banks as well. Not sure...
What will the next thing be? I’m scratching my head still (I think there is a strong chance that it is insurance and reinsurance when Balance Sheets will be tested by some VAR Shock in the future). All I know is that when it does happen there will be lines of people queueing up on Twitter/X and Substack claiming that they saw it coming.
For the same reason I stay away from European and Japan banks. I agree there is a whole paradigma shift of interest rates which is very positive for them mid term, but hard to believe they don't have many instruments /investments that they will have to mark down before/in the meantime...
I also deem it could be insurers, although many claims It cannot happen as they don't have to market to market. But so were many claiming for the (US) banks as well. Not sure...
What will the next thing be? I’m scratching my head still (I think there is a strong chance that it is insurance and reinsurance when Balance Sheets will be tested by some VAR Shock in the future). All I know is that when it does happen there will be lines of people queueing up on Twitter/X and Substack claiming that they saw it coming.
Reinsurance has been finding it hard of late to get CAT bonds away at decent yields and are still fighting inflation on replacement costs.
This Artemis YouTube channel is useful to keep an eye on the market.
https://youtube.com/@Artemisbm?si=CieirV_zx_i8Herb
VAR shocks are caused from the unknown unknowns - I’d agree there’ll be of lot of people jumping on the band wagon.
For the same reason I stay away from European and Japan banks. I agree there is a whole paradigma shift of interest rates which is very positive for them mid term, but hard to believe they don't have many instruments /investments that they will have to mark down before/in the meantime...