The Conflict is Back??

Mr Apple from the Norman Rockwell homage.

This is the famous painting “The Son of Man” by the Belgian surrealist painter, Rene Magritte. Famously Norman Rockwell paid homage to the artwork with his own Red Apple version known as “Mr Apple”. The original painting itself presents a conflict between what can be seen and what can’t be seen. The fact that the man is dressed in a suit and bowler hat, I am often reminded of Wall Street and the Square Mile. Conflict for me is the market, between what the bears can and can’t see and vice versa what the bulls can and can’t see. Thus a market is created.

I fall into the bull camp (for the moment). What is “surreal” to me is the lack of awareness of perma bears that have been calling for recession and market depression for the last 1.5 years despite the market bottoming in October 2022, out of that bear market and into this bull market we experience today. I joke often on twitter that this is a very tough Bear Market Rally. Clearly we are in a Bull Market. Of course we experience pull backs in the same way that we experience Bear Market Rallies in a downward trending market.

I’ve written extensively about how the large US Fiscal Deficits drive liquidity and activity into the market as well as additional leverage of “safe assets” tied with the Debt Ceiling being lifted back in 2023. You have come to know, or will come to know that I try to look 6 months ahead of the market to manage my risk and to try and find asymmetric trades that I can hold ahead of the market.

To that end would it interest you to know that I have started to turn bearish……